A Maya predictive model

A study on the use of Geographic Information Systems in a multi-scale archaeological project

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Table of content

• I. Introduction
• II. Presentation of the studied project
• • A. El Pilar: an ancient Maya center
  • B. A binational parc dedicated to peace and protection of flora and fauna
  • C. Study of the existing GIS
  • • 1. Data
    • • i. Quantity
      • ii. Quality
    • 2. Organization of the GIS
    • 3. Use of the GIS
• III. Implementation of a new organization
• • A. Redefinition of the role of the Geographic Information System (GIS)
  • B. The geodatabase
  • • 1. Choice of a format
    • 2. The feature datasets
    • 3. Control tools used
    • • i. Topology to control the archaeological sites
      • ii. Topology to control the soils
    • 4. Use rules
    • • i. Insertion of new data
      • ii. Use of existing data
      • iii. Modification of existing data
  • C. The maps
  • D. The working folder
• IV. Method of conception of a predictive model
• • A. Introduction
  • B. Reminder on the method of the Weights of evidence
  • • 1. Method of implementation
    • • i. Selection of training points (sites)
      • ii. Calculation of the weights associated with evidence classes
      • iii. Calculation of the result raster
    • iv. Quality testing of the result
    • 2. Model used in ArcGis
  • C. Thinking about implementation
  • 1. Choice of the parameters
  • 2. Choice of the training points
  • 3. Choice of the unit cell area
  • 4. Choice of the masks to be used
  • 5. Control and choice of the weights
  • 6. Creation of the probability map and qualitative analysis of the results
• V. Validation and improvement of the local model
• • A. Aims
  • B. Presentation of the area and the parameters
  • • 1. Rivers
    • 2. Drainage and fertility
    • 3. Topographic slope
  • C. Implementation of the method
  • • 1. Introduction
    • 2. Presentation of the sites and the masks
    • 3. Qualitative study of the sites and the training areas
    • 4. Detail of the calculation of the weights: mask of the transects
    • • i. Drainage and fertility
      • ii. Rivers
      • iii. Topographic slope
    • 5. Calculation of the result
  • D. Conclusions for the local model
  • • 1. Reliability of the model
    • 2. Choice of the result to keep
    • 3. Comparison with the result of 2004
• VI. Estimation of the population for the study area
• • A. Study of the sites
  • B. Reclassification of the predictive classes
  • • 1. Analysis of the result used in the past
    • 2. New implemented method
  • C. Propagation of the sites and improvement of the probabilities
  • D. Final analysis of the population of the study area
  • • 1. Study of the density and the population
    • 2. Analysis of the repartition of the sites
  • E. Needs in terms of food
  • • 1. Maya agriculture
    • • i. From the forest to the milpa
      • ii. From the milpa to the forest garden
      • iii. From the forest garden to the forest
      • iv. From the forest to the closed canopy
    • 2. Conception and calculation of the model
    • • i. Calories needed and alimentation model
      • ii. Area needed for corn production
      • iii. Implementation of the milpa cycle
    • 3. Analysis of possible values
    • • i. Modification of the length of the milpa cycle
      • ii. Modification of the number of years of use of the milpa
      • iii. Modification of the productivity of corn fields
  • F. Conclusion
• VII. Implementation of a regional model
• • A. Introduction
  • B. Presentation of the area and the parameters
  • • 1. Training sites
    • 2. Available parameters
    • • i. SRTM
      • ii. Topographic slope
      • iii. Elevation Over a Regional Base (EORB)
      • iv. Fertility and drainage
  • C. Implementation with the regional sites
  • • 1. Analysis of the weights
    • • i. EORB (500 m)
      • ii. SRTM
      • iii. Topographic slope
      • iv. Fertility and drainage
    • 2. Probability map
  • D. Implementation with local points
  • • 1. Analysis of the weights
    • • i. EORB (500 m)
      • ii. SRTM
      • iii. Topographic slope, drainage and fertility
    • 2. Probability map
  • E. Choice of a probability map to use
• VIII. Predictive model of the Maya world system and new analysis
• IX. Conclusion
• X. Annexes

Copyright © 2009 Sébastien Merlet (Sebeto). Géomètres Sans Frontières (GSF)